The ripple effects of the war in the Gulf region on global food systems

During my recent visit to Southeast Asia, the immediate effects are tangible, and those for this year and the next are shaping up. Countries are rationing energy, and mitigation measures are being explored across multiple sectors. 

On the food side, the critical issue is fertiliser supply, alongside rising energy and transport costs.  

The World Food Program estimates that around 45 million people could fall into life-threatening food insecurity if the conflict does not end by the summer and if oil prices stay above $100 a barrel. For consumers across the globe, the costs of disruption will not remain distant for long. 

Rising fuel and fertiliser costs are affecting agriculture, particularly in economies that depend heavily on imported fertilisers from Gulf-region producers. Higher energy prices increase the cost of irrigation, mechanisation, and transport, while also making fertilisers less affordable. Reduced fertiliser use can lower yields non-linearly, amplifying pressure on already fragile food systems. 

Ethiopia, in the middle of its planting season, shows how quickly global shocks translate into local realities. The country imports around 90% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz, and most of its fertiliser. Prices of key fertilisers have surged by over 70%, while fuel shortages disrupt transport, leaving produce stranded in warehouses. As a result, spoilage rates for the harvest have risen by 15–20%. 

Another example is rice production, as it is entering a crucial planting window just as fertiliser prices spike and availability is under pressure. A shortfall in fertiliser over the next two months could directly reduce global rice production and availability.  

Similar risks are emerging across continents, affecting planting schedules and farmer incomes, with potential knock-on effects for food availability and environmental pressures. 

This is the pyramid of food system vulnerability in action, and underlines the importance of building resilient food systems. Efficiency-optimised value chains function well in stable conditions, but upstream shocks cascade downward, revealing structural fragilities. 

This moment shows that true resilience is not only about absorbing disruption. It means redesigning systems to withstand the pressures of climate volatility, geopolitical tension, and environmental degradation. Resilience starts with natural systems, supports affordable and reliable food access, and enables viable livelihoods for farmers and workers. From there, it extends through markets, finance, logistics, and trade infrastructure, ultimately underpinning social and economic stability. 

Encouragingly, solutions are emerging on multiple fronts. Innovations in financing, digital tools, and climate-smart agriculture are helping to address these vulnerabilities. 

Blended finance facilities, such as IDH’s LATTE, illustrate how capital can be channelled into climate adaptation at origin, particularly in sectors as coffee, where smallholder farmers are highly exposed to both climate and price shocks. By working through agri-fintech lenders to finance climate resilience measures for small coffee producers across Colombia, Honduras, and Mexico, LATTE enables farmers to adopt practices such as soil restoration, regenerative agriculture, and improved water management, strengthening both productivity and resilience. 

In Nigeria, cassava, grains, and palm oil value chains have been strengthened through block farming models, traceable supply systems, and structured market integration. Over 200,000 smallholder farmers now participate in premium and traceable value chains, boosting yields, incomes, and supply reliability. Access to affordable finance and strengthened local processing has created over 100,000 jobs, increased domestic supply capacity, and improved rural economic outcomes. 

Similarly, in Ghana, the grains sector has shifted to market-driven, investment-led operations. Companies now source 100% of grain volumes locally, over 100,000 people are employed at above-average wages, and more than 80,000 smallholder farmers are integrated into formal, premium markets with structured offtake agreements 

These examples show how interventions at multiple layers can reinforce food system resilience while also generating broad social and economic benefits. 

While the announced ceasefire may ease immediate pressures on energy markets and trade flows, its temporary nature means that structural risks remain. The past weeks have already exposed how quickly disruptions can cascade through global food systems, reinforcing the urgency of building long-term resilience rather than relying on short-term stability. 

The ripple effects we are witnessing today are unlikely to be temporary. This calls for a shift beyond short-term risk mitigation. By investing in climate-resilient farming, supporting diversified value chains, and financing smallholder adaptation, we can safeguard both productivity and environmental sustainability over the long term.