There will be no climate transition without a reduction in inequality

The climate crisis is no longer a concern for the future. It is already reshaping the way we produce food, use natural resources, and organize our economies. In response, governments, businesses, and investors are announcing commitments to reduce emissions, restore ecosystems, and accelerate the so-called climate transition.

But there is one question that must be at the center of this debate: who will benefit from this transition?

If it is not capable of reducing inequality, creating opportunities, and improving the lives of the most vulnerable populations, it can hardly be considered a truly just transition.

In the Caatinga, this reality is unmistakable. Brazil’s only exclusively national biome is home to approximately 30 million people who live every day with water scarcity, climate variability, and the longstanding challenges of regional development. Climate change did not create these inequalities, but it is undoubtedly intensifying them.

This reality, however, stands in contrast to the region’s enormous potential. The Caatinga possesses a unique combination of attributes found in few places around the world: it is an exclusively Brazilian biome, one of the most densely populated semi-arid regions on the planet, and a strategic asset in addressing climate change. Recent studies have reinforced its importance for carbon sequestration and storage while highlighting its remarkable potential to reconcile environmental conservation, food production, and economic development. The challenge lies not in a lack of potential, but in the limited attention the region continues to receive from public policies and investments aimed at advancing the climate transition.

It is precisely family farmers—who are responsible for producing a significant share of the food consumed in Brazil—who face the greatest risks. More frequent droughts, rising temperatures, and increasingly irregular rainfall undermine agricultural production, reduce incomes, and heighten the economic vulnerability of rural households.

At the same time, these farmers possess a valuable asset that often goes unrecognized in global climate discussions: generations of knowledge about living and farming in semi-arid conditions. Over decades, they have learned to produce under challenging circumstances, diversify production systems, manage natural resources in ways adapted to local conditions, and build resilience strategies long before resilience became a central concept in international climate conferences.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply to help these families adapt to climate change. It is to ensure that they have the conditions to thrive in this new reality.

A study conducted by the Anker Research Institute in partnership with the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (CEBRAP) and the IDH Foundation revealed a troubling reality: the income of a large share of rural families in Brazil’s semi-arid region remains 30% to 50% below the level required to ensure a decent standard of living. This finding reinforces that poverty remains one of the greatest barriers to climate adaptation.

Families with insufficient income have less capacity to invest in new technologies, access credit, diversify production, or withstand extreme climate events. In other words, income is also a climate adaptation strategy.

For this reason, limiting the climate agenda to carbon emissions means addressing only part of the solution.

Strengthening family farming, expanding access to technical assistance, improving access to rural credit, supporting cooperatives, developing inclusive markets, and expanding public policies such as institutional food procurement are not simply rural development measures. They are investments in climate resilience.

Every farmer who increases their income also strengthens their ability to remain on the land, invest in more sustainable practices, reduce production risks, and contribute to the country's food security. Every cooperative that becomes stronger creates jobs, adds value to agricultural production, and stimulates local economies. Every municipality that strengthens its food systems becomes better prepared to face climate uncertainty.

This is precisely why economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability can no longer be treated as separate agendas.

The Caatinga offers a compelling example of this integration. Over recent years, different initiatives have demonstrated that it is possible to combine climate adaptation, environmental restoration, the strengthening of family farming, and income generation within a single territorial development strategy. When farmers have access to technical assistance, credit, well-functioning markets, and effective public policies, the entire local economy becomes stronger.

A truly successful climate transition will not be built solely through new technologies or major investments in green infrastructure. Above all, it will depend on our ability to generate prosperity for the people living in the territories most vulnerable to climate change.

Perhaps this is the most important lesson the Caatinga can offer Brazil and the world.

For many years, Brazil’s semi-arid region was portrayed only as a place of scarcity. Today, it can be recognized as a laboratory for solutions that support a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economy. The experience of local communities demonstrates that adaptation is not simply about withstanding climate impacts, but about creating new development opportunities from them.

As different sectors come together during Caatinga Climate Week to discuss the future of the climate agenda, it is worth remembering that restored hectares, avoided emissions, and green investments are important indicators—but they are not enough.

The true success of the climate transition will also be measured by its ability to reduce inequality, generate income, and ensure that millions of families can remain in their territories with dignity, producing food, conserving biodiversity, and building a more prosperous future.

Reducing social inequality must be more than simply a desirable outcome of the climate agenda. It is an essential condition for ensuring that the transition is, in fact, a just one.

Grazielle Cardoso is an economist and holds a Ph.D. in Economic Development from the University of Campinas (Unicamp), specializing in agricultural economics and environmental issues. For more than a decade, she has worked at the intersection of rural development, family farming, and sustainability, with experience in projects across Latin America that connect producers, the public sector, private companies, and scientific communities around shared objectives.

Since 2022, she has led the Raízes da Caatinga Program at the IDH Foundation, focusing on increasing family farming incomes, advancing climate adaptation, and strengthening inclusive markets in Brazil’s semi-arid region, one of the areas most vulnerable to climate change in the country.